This new wave of lockdowns make no sense. Ivor Cummins runs the numbers below, and newsflash people; they do not lie.
The politicians and mainstream media are obviously deluded, seeing what are in effect seasonal norms and conflating them with some huge disaster in waiting. A disaster that, it is patently obvious, is mostly imaginary. As of Thursday over here in Ireland we go into a ‘soft’ level five lockdown where people aren’t officially allowed to go further than five kilometres from their homes, unless they are exempt for some reason.
As Ivor rightly points out, the data is in, and the numbers tell one simple truth. The SARS/COV-2 virus has already spread and is doing nothing like the damage predicted by the shonky Imperial College modelling. Because that’s what’s behind these lockdowns, bad data modelling. Not real science, but statistics based on false assumptions. Which isn’t science at all.
We hear a lot from the media talking heads and politicians about ‘doubling’ of rates, indeed we’ve been hearing this Greek chorus for quite a while now, but nothing of the sort appears to be happening. The seasonal norms continue to go about their business in blithe disregard of what those in the media bubble realities have been so breathlessly predicting. It’s like listening to Global Warming fanatics (Well of course, they’re often the same people). Those disaster fantasies are also fueled by these bad computer models. I believe the specific data models these things are based on is a particular algorithm which is about as much use as the proverbial chocolate teapot when it comes to any approximation of reality.
They rather remind me of my Canadian Brother in law, who gleefully latches on to the latest we’re all dooomed fad fiction and repeats it as though it were gospel truth. He doesn’t bother with the real science, never bothers with source data, just reels off out of context stories from the mainstream. All of his information is at least fourth hand from press releases. Unfortunately, no matter how wrong he is, he continues to believe that he knows the ‘science’, and often dismisses my observations that one disaster scenario looks awfully like the one predicted last month. No doubt, despite my well-founded scepticism, he will refer to me as a ‘denier’, which is nothing more than a rhetorical trick. Call your opponent names and dismiss anything they might have to say, no matter how reasonable.
Fortunately, Mrs S and I have stocked up on the necessaries, we have received assurances that our worldly goods will probably be delivered about the end of the month, and we’ve set up work arounds for most of the other little niggles that these futile bloody lockdowns throw up in our faces. Then there’s the ongoing saga of getting car insurance, which for strange reasons known only to Irish insurance companies, isn’t widely available to expats. And there’s no one I can talk to or reason with face to face under these restrictions. So far all my efforts have failed to bear fruit. Now if I was an alcoholic Lithuanian and an EU citizen with nine points on my license, it would be a snip. But since I’m a Canadian expat with a clean driving record, it’s “Sorry, can’t help you.”
But trying to convince my brother in law, and likewise the politicians, that they’ve got it all wrong, is quite simply an exercise in futility. It leaves you feeling desperate and slightly hollow. Or as I said to Mrs S today “Sometimes I just feel like crying.”